The numbers paint a fascinating picture as the Reds look to bounce back from Old Trafford and take a giant step towards Champions League qualification
Saturday lunchtime brings one of the Premier League‘s most storied rivalries to Anfield, as Liverpool host Chelsea in a match that carries enormous implications for both clubs. The Reds are desperate to respond after their painful 3-2 defeat at Manchester United last weekend, while Chelsea arrive under interim head coach Calum McFarlane in the midst of a deeply troubling run of form. The statistics ahead of this fixture make for compelling reading, and they point overwhelmingly in one direction. Here is everything the numbers tell us ahead of kick-off.
Anfield in May: A Fortress Liverpool Rarely Surrender
The first and perhaps most reassuring statistic for Liverpool supporters is the club’s extraordinary record at Anfield during the month of May. The Reds have not lost a Premier League home game in May since 2015, when Crystal Palace left Merseyside with a 3-1 victory. In the ten years since that defeat, Liverpool have gone unbeaten in 17 successive Premier League matches at Anfield in the fifth month of the calendar year, winning 11 and drawing six.
That is a remarkable sequence and one that will provide genuine psychological comfort as Liverpool prepare for a game they simply cannot afford to lose. Anfield in May, historically, is not a place where points are surrendered easily. Chelsea will need to do something that no visiting side has managed in over a decade if they are to leave with anything from Saturday’s lunchtime appointment.
The 12:30 Kick-Off Factor
Dig a little deeper into Liverpool’s home record and the statistics become even more striking. The Reds are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League fixtures at Anfield that have kicked off at 12:30 on a Saturday, winning eight and drawing four. The last time Liverpool lost a lunchtime home league game on a Saturday was in January 2017, a 3-2 defeat to Swansea City that feels like a very long time ago indeed.
Saturday’s match kicks off at that precise slot. Whether or not the time of kick-off has any genuine bearing on performance is debatable, but the psychological weight of a twelve-game unbeaten run in that specific fixture slot is the kind of historical context that matters in football. Liverpool know these conditions well, and they have thrived in them consistently.
Chelsea’s Misery at Anfield
The visitors’ recent record at Anfield is stark. Chelsea have won just one of their last ten Premier League trips to Liverpool, drawing five and losing four. That solitary win stands as an isolated moment in an otherwise bleak sequence for the Blues at this particular ground, and it will do little to bolster confidence in a Chelsea dressing room already dealing with the weight of a catastrophic recent run.
Even more encouragingly for Liverpool, the Reds are unbeaten in their last four Premier League meetings with Chelsea at Anfield, winning two and drawing two since a 1-0 loss in March 2021. Saturday represents the opportunity to win three consecutive home league games against Chelsea for the first time since a remarkable sequence between 1992 and 1997 when Liverpool won six on the bounce against them at Anfield. History, in almost every measurable sense, strongly favours the home side.
Chelsea’s Collapse in Context
If Liverpool’s home record is one side of the statistical story, Chelsea’s current form is the other, and it makes for extremely uncomfortable reading from a Blues perspective. Chelsea have lost each of their last six Premier League matches, a run of form so dire that it has cost the permanent head coach his job and placed the club in genuine jeopardy of missing out on European football altogether.
To understand just how badly things have unravelled, consider this: only once in Chelsea’s entire league history have they lost seven consecutive Premier League matches, and that happened in November and December of 1952. They are now one defeat away from matching the worst run in the club’s modern history. The pressure on every player in that dressing room, and on interim boss McFarlane, is immense.
The defensive numbers are equally alarming. Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League matches, shipping three goals in four of their last five. The last time they went on a longer run without a league clean sheet was between March and August 1991, a sequence of 17 matches. For a club of Chelsea’s resources and ambition, these are extraordinarily poor statistics, and Liverpool’s attack will arrive on Saturday fully aware that goals are very much there for the taking.
Szoboszlai: Following in Gerrard’s Footsteps
Amid the broader team context, one individual statistic stands out as genuinely extraordinary. Dominik Szoboszlai leads Liverpool in combined goals and assists across all competitions this season, having contributed 13 goals and 10 assists. That total of 23 direct goal involvements is the kind of output that transforms a very good midfielder into an elite one.
But the truly remarkable context for that achievement is the company it puts Szoboszlai in. The Hungarian is the first Liverpool midfielder to record both 10 or more goals and 10 or more assists in a single campaign since Steven Gerrard in 2013-14, when the club captain produced 14 goals and 14 assists in one of the finest individual seasons of his career. To be mentioned in the same statistical breath as Gerrard is no small thing, and it reflects a level of contribution from Szoboszlai that has arguably gone slightly under the radar given everything else happening at the club this season.
His goal at Old Trafford last weekend, halving the deficit early in the second half, was a reminder of the big-game quality he possesses. Against Chelsea on Saturday, Liverpool will be looking to their Hungarian midfielder to deliver again.
The Joao Pedro Threat
For all that Chelsea’s form has been dreadful, Liverpool cannot afford complacency when it comes to the individual threat posed by Joao Pedro. The Blues’ top scorer with 15 league goals and 20 in all competitions, the Brazilian has been directly involved in seven of Chelsea’s last nine Premier League goals, scoring six and assisting one. In a team that has been collectively struggling, his individual output has been the one consistent bright spot.
Liverpool’s defence, led by Konate and Van Dijk, will be well aware of the danger he presents. Containing Joao Pedro while Chelsea attempt to end their wretched run will be one of the defining tactical battles of the afternoon.
The Bigger Picture
Beyond the statistics, Saturday’s match is about something very simple: Liverpool need to win. With Chelsea, Aston Villa and Brentford to follow across the final three games of the season, there is no room for dropped points if Champions League football is to be secured. The numbers suggest the conditions are favourable, the opponent is vulnerable and Anfield in May is historically a place where Liverpool deliver.
The statistics have been consulted. Now the players must do the rest.
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YNWA (You’ll Never Walk Alone)!
The Liverpool FC Times Team
LiverpoolFCTimes.com